Folks. Just so much going on. Where to start? The party I guess. Huge success. Thanks to all those that braved the rain and made it out. We had a great night and lots of great folks were there. Thanks. We appreciate the business a ton! This blog just recorded a record month - I was completely surprised by it. Thanks to all of our readers and contributors. Awesome stuff.
I won’t even get to the latest events of today. Just another nightmare is starting - again.
Latest on Thaksin is that he is trying to stay put in England via asylum.
New hedge fund in the states - http://strategerycapital.com/ :
Strategery is a unique hedge fund.
It is the largest in the world, with expected initial capital of $700 billion. It has a free and unlimited credit line should it need more. It has no fixed mandate, though it is expected to initially focus on mortgage-backed securities. And it is the only fund backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government.
Strategery is a way for you to be more patriotic. Supporting this fund is an American duty. Criticizing this fund or any of its associated legislation or regulations may be subject to civil and criminal penalties.
Best porn I have seen in a while. Check it
So this China milk thing is a mess. Heads should roll. I think some heads in the NZ company should roll as well. Here is the problem though - is the world finally getting that China is messed up and needs some way to reel it in a bit? My guess is they kill their own people all the time over common safety issues. Food is just one of them. No one cares though. Now other countries are seeing their people die. Are the numbers big enough yet to create a stir? I am not so sure.
Milk containing melamine has been blamed for killing four babies and sickening more than 54,000 with kidney stones and other illnesses in China. The contamination has sparked global concerns about food products made with Chinese milk or milk powder and recalls in several countries of Chinese-made products.
Wait though. This does relate to Thailand.
Thailand’s Health Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung warned Wednesday that Thai officials should be careful about what they say concerning possible contaminated products from China, because they could affect trade ties with the Asian giant.
“I did not mean that I am afraid of China, but we have to be concerned about our trade ties because Thailand does a lot of business with China,” Chalerm said later in the day.
Okay. So the new part time tourism minister, Chalerm, is basically saying he cares more about his personal business interests in China than the health of the Thais. Nice. Admirable qualities.
So now that he has spoken about the Milk thing let’s have him work on tourism a bit.
New Chalerm tourism slogan - Come to Thailand for our holidays - not yours. BYOB.
Chalerm was confident he could push ahead with his plan before the New Year celebrations started. He said a survey conducted some time ago revealed 67 per cent of people agreed with the idea to ban alcohol sales on religious holidays, Songkran and the New Year period.
This is a huge blow folks. No offense but tourists come now not knowing that they may land on a day with no booze served. Take the elections for example. But if this goes through then it will be quite clear that on major holidays there will be no booze. Arrivals would go down for sure. So while the whole world is struggling Thailand’s takes one of its growth industries and kicks it in the balls for all the world to see. Props.
Speaking of this past election booze ban did u know that on last Friday all the NEP bars paid cash to be open especially on Saturday night but they got shutdown anyway. Hey bar owners - refund checks are in the mail. I swear.
PAD heads are starting to roll. As they should. Word is Thomas Cook travel lost so much money over the Phukett airport closure that they are taking it out of the marketing material and offering non-Thailand alternatives. This is where the Thais just don’t get it. Phukett should hire Chalerm as a part-time consultant.
I don’t condone robbery but this has to be the funniest use of craiglist yet.
But apparently, the robber had planned ahead. In case anyone was hot on his trail, he had at least a dozen unsuspecting decoys waiting nearby, which he recruited on Craigslist.
“I came across the ad that was for a prevailing wage job for $28.50 an hour,” said Mike, who saw a Craigslist ad last week looking for workers for a road maintenance project in Monroe.
So the US slowdown, now a global slowdown - is starting to trickle into Thailand. It can’t be stopped. The question is will the government do anything about it? My guess is no. With guys like Chalerm around the continued stance towards tourism and commerce leads me to believe not enough will be done. Monetary policies should be eased, tourism encouraged, nightlife should open later and work permit/investment rules should be simplified. One can hope.
Last one here. Crispin on why America is looking like SE Asia during the crash.
Now many of the same pro-market stalwarts who criticized Asia’s half-market, half-interventionist response to the 1997-98 financial crisis are among the strongest proponents of the US government’s proposed US$810 billion Wall Street bailout package.
Stay tuned why we weather the storm…
a mate who works with one of the biggest (if not biggest) travel / tour agencies in Finland siad 60% of the tours for nov. and december have been canceled.
sixty percent
View all comments by Pattaya Ghost
yup - but the cancellations are not the global slowdown but people tired of Thailand Tourism Bullshit
TTB for short
View all comments by sideshowBOB
yup - but the cancellations are not the global slowdown but people tired of Thailand Tourism Bullshit
What the? So the Global finical crisis isn’t having any effect on peoples holiday plans, that’s comforting. It’s certainly affecting my plans for a 2 month trip to Thailand next year. Sure the political unrest can’t be dismissed as a factor(for others, not me) but overseas holiday plans are slipping down the priority list faster than a lolitas girls on a ….well you get the picture.
View all comments by Wenthworth
ww - sorry. the thomas cook thing and some of the ones PG mentioned are a direct result of cancellations due to political strife. the global slowdown will only add to it. So my point is - in the face of a global slowdown thailand will allow stupid shit to happen that will only make it worse.
that better?
View all comments by sideshowBOB
What Thailand shooting itself in the foot when its arse is on fire?
Is that possible?
View all comments by Wenthworth
@SSB - I hope those Strategery guys need some database programmers, that’s right up my alley!
At one point the Dow (admittedly a supremely stupid index, but everyone uses it) was at a number it hadn’t seen since 1999. 2000 zero zero party over, out of time/Today my stocks are trading like it’s 1999.
The scary thing is that the REALLY scary stuff is too obscure to make it into the news. Stock market declines are a reflection of the cessation of loaning. California can’t sell paper to back up its payroll. Huge, creditworthy corporations are having to subsist on overnight paper, assuming they can sell that. The tax free bond market (read, municipalities, higher education institutions, etc. and so forth) is shut down. The cost of doing a repo, 10 year treasury yields at near WW II levels. Those markets have to start moving or we really are screwed.
Here’s a bellwether for the US economy. If I cancel my next trip to the LOS things are getting really nasty.
View all comments by tosh
tosh - yup. way scary.
let’s get into what would cause u to cancel? u get laid off?
apart from that. if u still work. get a paycheck and have time off doesn’t just look even better and better here?
need to know
struggling bar owner.
View all comments by sideshowBOB
can anyone please tell me why the thai bht is so strong against the euro,pound and australian dollar ?thats what hurts tourists from spending up big when or if they get here.ive lost 30% in 3 months in currency exchange-whats going on-who is propping up the thai bht?any ideas?thanks rt
View all comments by zepplin
zep
I am sure some currency trader will pounce on me but this is not the baht being strong - those 3 currencies you mention are getting killed against everything. the baht is relatively stable against the dollar but those 3 currencies u mention are getting crushed by the dollar.
thai baht is losing against the dollar slowly but surely…
View all comments by sideshowBOB
US Econ, It actually has impacted me in my travels. I used to do 5 trips a year 3 to Thailand and 2 to So America… Because of what is going on, next year I will be visiting Thailand only once maybe 2 and my South American trips are going to 1 or 0.
For me its about insulating myself if things get worse, always have to have a plan.
Also with the unknowns in Thailand (read dry days & AH) i am also going to just be there a few days this time around spending the bulk of my time in the PI. I go to party my ass off so with these holidays and those closing times that are shaky, i want to go where i know i can party like a rockstar!
Our Co is part of the new hedge fund… dump the worst and hope for the best! ha ha
GL
View all comments by GoodLife
The NEP thing is kinda funny, Its one thing to be closed by the local area BiB but another to be paid-up to stay open and then get shut by them.
A couple places on the soi were open but mainly just for eating then closed early anyway.
On another note some Airline ticket prices to Bangkok have gone back down so there is some relief out there.
View all comments by AnotherBarBoss
First, when you’ve lived in Thailand so long, why can’t you spell Phuket with one ‘t’?
Second, people are still flying. Just not to Thailand. I was recently on a flight to Bangkok from Bali, which was 90 percent full. When I was collecting my bags, there were less than 20 people doing the same. They were by-passing Thailand and flying on to Europe.
Now the pictures of blood and tear gas and bombs going off will finish the job the Thai government are intent on doing - killing the tourism business. Can there be any other non-muslim country in the world that would ban booze on New Year? WTF! And they still expect people to come to Thailand and party? The question is, why do they want to kill tourism? They must have a reason, but it beats me.
View all comments by Barry
barry excuse the typo. my apologies. I am sure it changed the thrust of my post. my bad.
Actually though it is a secret ploy of mine to rename the city in hopes I could help re-market it and people won’t realize it is the same place. let me know if it worked.
yeah the alcohol stuff is so bad. frankly I don’t think they are trying to kill tourism but they are too inept and one track minded to realize they are. the thai way I guess.
View all comments by sideshowBOB
5 of my best mates in England were planning to book their annual trip to Bangers for Xmas in the next week or so.
Since i told them about the possible no drinking shit coming about, they are gonna change it to Bali this year. Who wants to bang hookers and drink Sprite? Not them.
View all comments by Young Penfold
“The question is, why do they want to kill tourism? They must have a reason, but it beats me.”
Crediting a group of strategically shaved chimpanzees in suits (AKA the Thai government) with reasoning is to miss the point - they are just morons with hardly a brain cell to rub together between them, it’s as simple as that.
View all comments by Nok Opayop
@ YP: bang hookers and drink Sprite or wank themselves and drink booze? Difficult choice for your friends, huh?
View all comments by SukPsycho
yp - doing your bit for tourism. thanks buddy
nok - I was trying to say the same thing in some polite form. oh well. u got it.
View all comments by sideshowBOB
@ SukPsyco - They could wank themselves and drink booze i guess….. but 1 thing they wouldnt be dumb enough to do is pay a hooker 2k for ST ….twice *snigger*
@ Sideshow - valid point how because of no booze @ Xmas, Thailand has lost 5 guys spending 3-4grand each (pounds not baht silly)
Thats the last time I ever post a serious response. EVER
View all comments by Young Penfold
@ YP: well yes, 5 of them, they can have fun together and with the bottles, no need to pay for a third party
View all comments by SukPsycho
I guess I’m going to jail since I think the Strategery Hedge Fund is moronic. The porn cracked me up. We need a few laughs here right now…thanks.
Does this booze thing on holidays extend to the big hotels, too? I mean, I can’t see the Oriental or the Peninsula or the other top places telling their guests “sorry no beer today”. Or even worse, for a weekend. It’s funny how many business guys manage to work their business trips around a Friday-Tuesday layover (no pun intended) in BKK. If the ban would hold in the big joints, Thailand would be just screwed.
View all comments by The Asian Badger
True, died in the wool currency speculators are the BASE jumpers of finance, and where I work is about as far as one can get from that. We’re maybe ground crew, I doubt we even get in the plane. So I don’t know the situation all that well but I asked a few friends closer to that business and they said three things, two I expected and one I didn’t. First, the dollar is rising against most currencies (Euro, Aussie dollar, etc.) as people try to get less risky by owning the shortest term, safest debt they can. I.e. US Treasuries. Despite what you read on the lefty blogs it’s still the safest place to put your money. The second one I expected was that the ‘carry trade’ appears to be unwinding, at long last. For I don’t know how long, ten years maybe, this has been a nice way to make decent returns. For political/social reasons Japan floods their banking sector with cheap cash, allowing all kinds of bad things to happen to their economy. One of which is incredibly low interest rates, in real terms well below 1%. So, you borrow at 1% from a Japanese bank, convert that to pounds or dollars or whatever and buy bonds that pay 4% (or if you’re brave go buy Brazilian state debt with a better return) and make that spread. Lever it up to the gills and you have a real return. During times of turmoil (like say, the last six months) or white knuckle speed freak terror (the last few weeks) eventually investors get scared that their returns will be eaten away by currency fluctuations or defaults in riskier debt or whatever. So they get out of the trade and have to buy yen to pay back their Japanese loans. If more people want something it costs more, thus the yen recently spiked up close to 5% against a basket of currencies at a time when the Japanese economy is at least as grim as it’s been in a while. Why does that matter for the baht? In general currencies from smaller Asian countries track the yen, as Japan (fucked up as it is) still has the third largest GDP in the world and a massive banking sector.
The reason I didn’t expect re: the baht was that ‘political issues’ (as one friend said) had been keeping the baht depressed. I guess because I follow Thai politics and read Thai history a bunch of crypto-monarchist protestors in downtown BKK don’t make me think of the country as a less safe place to keep my money. Certainly not any more safe, but most of Thailand seems to mosey on its way despite politics. Apparently currency traders think otherwise and maybe they’re quite right. In their opinion the ‘political issues’ dropped out of the news for a while, even if they weren’t properly fixed, so the baht took back some ground. I guess currency guys are particularly worried about those sorts of things, not sure why.
For a holder of Aussie dollars they’re getting a double whammy. The (IMHO overvalued) currency is falling while the baht for somewhat odd reasons is appreciating. Same for the Euro and a fair number of others.
As far as my cancelling my roughly two weeks in BKK, most scenarios are connected to economic catastrophe. My firm is pathologically concerned about risk and a long dated time horizon. Sure, anyone can get unlucky, but my guess is if we actually went belly up, as opposed to just not doing well, there would be guns on the streets. My bank and/or broker could fold, but in that case I should still have some money insured by the FDIC. Again, if they’re gone then it’s survivalist time anyway. Lastly, markets could still be so effed up that my guys tell me I just can’t leave. If things are this bad then, again, we’re in for a rough, rough 2009.
So, hope to see you soon, Smitty!
View all comments by tosh
I have not been following all the shit in Bangkok that much. But today it got mt attention on the BBC website “People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) want to replace one person one vote”, now call me stupid or maybe it’s because I live in the west but thats what I thought democracy was about.
Calum
View all comments by Calum
Congress is doing anything it can to make people forget they helped grease the wheels to this financial crisis. Did any of those clowns read any of the fine print?
“Section 8. Review. Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.”
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081006/greider2
Or worse, they did read the fine print and are going to give Paulson carte blanc anyway. Apparently, now that he’s in the public sector, they’ve forgotten that Paulson comes from the very group of blood suckers who are now begging for their bailout funds….but I’m sure no conflicts of interest will occur.
And this just in, Paulson names long time Goldman Sachs associate Neel Kashkari to head up the distribution of the $700 billion.
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/1088134/who_is_neel_kashkari_and_why_is_he.html
View all comments by Bubba
Now there may still be skeptics that the good ‘ol boys club was disbanded, but that’s just not the case:
“Paulson also leans heavily on former Goldman Sachs executives Dan Jester and Ken Wilson, both financial institutions bankers, and Steve Shafran, who focused on corporate restructuring while at Goldman.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/meltdown_administration
I suppose it’s only fitting that a group of clowns should have a Jester. But seriously, how long will it be before we hear the excuses that this job is too large for the Treasury to handle by itself and they need to bring in external consultants, paying each hundreds of thousands, if not millions, each month to assist in the distribution and management of funds?
And the DOW dropped over 5% yesterday. It’s time to play the game, “How low will it go.”
Since these good ‘ol boys have been acting and thinking they’re smarter than the Congress and financial whiz kids of the Great Depression, I’m going to say history will repeat itself and the market is on it’s way to losing close to 80% of it’s value from the 14,200 high.
My guess is 3,800.
Oh yea, almost forgot….Blue horseshoe loves Strategery.
View all comments by Bubba
Tosh…straddle the OEX at open on a 30 day. When you see where it’s going, cut the loss and double up.
View all comments by The Asian Badger
Quote of the day from a tuk tuk driver at the protests interviewed for the NY Times:
“The economy is bad,” he added. “Fewer tourists are coming to Thailand. There are traffic jams all over the place. I can’t work. They should talk this out, and the demonstrations should stop.”
View all comments by bkk22
“Thats the last time I ever post a serious response. EVER”
YP: You were being serious? I figured your reference to 5 mates was a euphemism for your band of youthful rapscallion ladyboys.
View all comments by Bubba
So Bubba…how low will it go? Who cares? You ever hear of PUTS on the indicies? Man, I love volatility.
View all comments by The Asian Badger
@@”Tosh…straddle the OEX at open on a 30 day. When you see where it’s going, cut the loss and double up.”
Interesting advice, Mr. Badger, but — to veer for just a moment off the more popularly supported subjects here — if you’re going to abandon the straddle at the day’s initial indication of a market direction and double up on the trend, what does the opening straddle ultimately achieve?
View all comments by Old Asia Hand
or write a strangle for october expiration. lots of premium still left although lots of risk as well.
what a blog - now all three pastimes are covered - girls, english breakfasts and now investing.
View all comments by generous sponsor
“what does the opening straddle ultimately achieve?”
if you’re lucky, you get a few nickels. if you’re not lucky, you get flattened by a steamroller.
View all comments by go go groupie
@ Asian Badger - Personally, I think we’re beyond short term trading strategies. If you now where we’ll be in 30 days, more power to you. I’m concerned that AT+T is surviving on overnight paper. Once that’s fixed I’ll start to think about other ideas. Right now I’m worried about shotguns and tuna fish.
@ OAH - Very, very good point. Why bother with the straddle if you’re only going to play very short term volatility? I work in a very particular kind of finance world and don’t notice these things.
Again, if anyone is listening. This is no joke. Be careful with your money for now. Maybe I should write a Dummie’s Guide. But just be careful with your cash. I don’t think the world is ending, but I have to guess there will be some bumps ahead.
View all comments by tosh
yp - christmas is not on the list. only new years eve is and that is not a done deal. so chill with your predictions.
ab - there are no details so I can’t answer but based on what they are trying to do yes - it is no booze. it is in insane and chalerm should be dumped. yes - cool porn.
c - PAD is a joke and has nothing to do with democracy.
bkk22 - nice. it is like that sign some tuk-tuk dude has in pattaya. no farang = no money.
gs - living the dream!
View all comments by sideshowBOB
bubba - what about this:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/06/walker.bailout/index.html
View all comments by sideshowBOB
@Old Asian Hand
“if you’re going to abandon the straddle at the day’s initial indication of a market direction and double up on the trend, what does the opening straddle ultimately achieve?”
IMHO, you have to have both sides at the open because no one knows which way it’s headed. Today, Oct. 7, should have been an “up big” day according to all the models….so WTF…it went down another 500+ on the Dow and down 60.66 on the S&P 500. S&P 100 was down 29.17.
Having said that, if you straddle at the open, and WATCH, you can see where it’s going. In TODAY’S situation, i.e. as of this time in market history, you can see where it’s going to go about an hour or two after the open. So you cut the loss (put or call) and take the proceeds and double up on the long/short.
It’s not perfect and there have to be big swings but it’s working right now. It’s not a long term strategy either, but it’s working right now. Volatility is always short-lived (as I suspect you know well) and you have to watch it like a hawk. It’s not a buy and forget strategy.
Yeah, with the straddle you leave some money on the table but bulls, bears, hogs, etc. I cash out every day and start new every morning. I do some on the Asian markets using the same strategy which means:
1) No travel to the LOS;
2) Sore ass and blurry eyes; and,
3) Some pretty happy investors, at least for now.
NOTE: The above is NOT investment advice, only an explanation of what I’m doing. YMMV.
View all comments by The Asian Badger
@Tosh…Forget stocks…indicies only for now. See above.
View all comments by The Asian Badger
Badger: Apparently Congress, the Treasury and the presidential candidates all care. You ever hear of them saying, “Restore confidence in the markets.”? Good to hear you love the volatility and are making a pile of cash. But perhaps you should widen your narrow view and realize that not everyone has the resources to play the game and the consequences are that jobs and homes are being lost as asset values tumble, or worse:
http://www.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081007/ap_on_re_us/bodies_found
The self-serving attitude of financial sector is giving a large percentage of the US population (yourself excluded) a good reason to pull their money out of not only the stock market, but banks as well. It’s becoming apparent their self-serving motives are contributing to the bankruptcy of not only their own firms, but national economies:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/07/world/main4508148.shtml?source=RSSattr=World_4508148
“The krona is suffering in part from a withdrawal by a falloff in what are called carry trades - where investors borrow cheaply in a country with low rates, such as Japan, and invest in a country where returns, and often risks, are higher.”
What those number crunching statistical and analytic financial models overlook is that all this is built upon debt with the assumption that the payments will be made. So consider: If people aren’t working and the value of assets are falling, who cares about holding US T-Bonds or US Dollars on the full faith and credit of the United States (citizen)? The paper you’re earning, everyone’s paper, will essentially becomes worthless.
View all comments by Bubba
ssB: Looking at the numbers from a percentage basis is dangerous when the overall debt is so large.
The debt burden on the US taxpayer is worrying. Since the interest on the debt contributes to the principal amount due, the debt growth is not on a linear, but logarithmic. The question is when; when will the debt reach the point that the logarithmic growth of interest cripples the economy so badly it will be impossible to repay:
When I see the government take action to save these financial institutions (and other industries) along with the ever increasing amount of money required to pull it off I don’t see it as a good thing. More like rewarding bad behavior in my opinion. I’ve commented before that this whole bailout is nothing more than corporate welfare and an effort to keep the system afloat a bit longer.
I liked this one liner from Wiki as I believe it summarizes the direction many governments are leading their citizens when they accrue these huge piles of debt:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt
‘Historically, debt was responsible for the creation of indentured servants.’
View all comments by Bubba
Callum: Like so many anti-government movements in so many countries in the world, the PAD has put the word ‘Democracy’ in the name of their organization to make it sound better.
They are no more about ‘democracy’ than the People’s Republic of China is run by the “people”.
The PAD is, in fact, pro-monarchist, pro-big business, pro-army.
They have invented a term, “New Politics” which they haven’t finished figuring out yet.
However, a few highlights of what this “democratic” organization recommends:
Only 30% of the Parliament to be directly elected. The other 70% to be appointed.
The military not to be controlled by the civilian government, but ultimately by the King.
Four conditions written into the constitution which would be considered legitimate, appropriate grounds for the army to overthrow the civilian government-of-the-day in a coup d’etat.
These guys (the PAD) are an active, militant group of primarily middle class Bangkok people following a small group of businessmen and former army generals. Their stated goals have continually escalated.
Initially they were anti-corruption.
When court cases were successfully prosecuting people in and out of government for election fraud and other corruption, they raised the stakes.
Next, the goal was to force the resignation of the PM.
When they gained traction on this and it became apparent that the PM would eventually be forced from office (he was ousted about three weeks ago) they didn’t wait, but raised the stakes again.
The new goal was dissolution of the Parliament.
To be fair, they only settled here for a day or two before realizing it was too easily accomplished. They raised the stakes again.
The next goal was to force the downfall of the current PPP-led government. This has been a realistic possibility for a few weeks now, so they raised the stakes to the current level.
The current goal of the PAD is to overthrow the current system of government (oddly, the constitution that was written and initiated by the government appointed by the 2006 coup-makers). They want to replace it with “New Politics”. Since it should take another couple of weeks to destroy the current government, the PAD seems to calculate that they have some time up their sleeves to figure out exactly what “New Politics” is.
It’s clear, though… it will have very little to do with democracy.
View all comments by Werewolf
@ Bubba. Apparently Congress, the Treasury and the presidential candidates all care.
So what? They don’t give a shit about anything except getting re-elected. I make money off of their stupidity for me and my investors. Man up and get over your naive understanding of the financial world.
But perhaps you should widen your narrow view and realize that not everyone has the resources to play the game and the consequences are that jobs and homes are being lost as asset values tumble, or worse:
(Follwed by link which doesn’t want to seem to reproduce.)
Not my problem. I try and make people and the markets pay for their stupidity. Not that I can influence markets but I’ve paid plenty for my own stupidity. I got over it….so should you if you want to play. If not, find a mutual fund and hope for the best.
The self-serving attitude of financial sector is giving a large percentage of the US population (yourself excluded) a good reason to pull their money out of not only the stock market, but banks as well. It’s becoming apparent their self-serving motives are contributing to the bankruptcy of not only their own firms, but national economies:
I’m insulted you excluded me. My job is to make money for my investors. Period. End of story.
It can be done in any market, up or down. I’m not tied to silly 401Ks or mutual funds which, as a rule, can only go long. If the US market fails, I’ll find another one. Sorry to burst your bubble, but the US isn’t the refuge it used to be even six months ago.
I put my money where my mouth is and I’ve got the record to prove it. The only difference between me and Soros is he’s got a hell of a lot more than I do and he wants to blow Obama.
What those number crunching statistical and analytic financial models overlook is that all this is built upon debt with the assumption that the payments will be made.
That’s a really weak model.
View all comments by The Asian Badger
This was never a policy. It was a suggested topic for discussion by Sondhi, and the numbers were plucked from thin air as an example.
Incidentally, the UK government works in a similar way (appointed/elected split, namely the Houses of Lords/Commons).
I don’t agree with the actions of the PAD, but I sympathise with their concerns. The PPP came into power after receiving a minority of the vote (36%?), even this due to massive vote-buying in the provinces. I’m sure most of the locals here know enough Issan folks to be able to verify this.
The PPP face dissolution as punishment for vote fraud, unless they’re allowed to amend the Constitution to indemnify themselves before the judgement’s handed out. Stopping them from doing so is now pretty much the main objective of the PAD, from what I understand.
Assuming they eventually receive their punishment, we’ll have a dissolved government, and another election. And another dry weekend. Ho hum.
View all comments by Bangkok Bad Boy
Bubba…I just re-read my post, above.
I’m sorry if it seemed insulting because that was not my intent.
I’m a professional money guy. I’m an old fighter pilot who saw my share of shit up my six.
I’m only in it for myself since the only people I trust are my old shipmates and a Thai bar girl who took my payment to her on credit the next day. Let’s call her Noi. I paid and I think she still has a sick water buffalo.
Cheers and best of luck.
View all comments by The Asian Badger
“This was never a policy. It was a suggested topic for discussion by Sondhi, and the numbers were plucked from thin air as an example.”
Yeah, even the representatives of the PAD admit they need to figure out what it is they hope to achieve. Kasit Pimorya, a former ambassador and advocate of the PAD, said as much at the Foreign Correspondents Club discussion last week.
They have said that they would like to have some form of semi appointed parliament represented by different industries (possibly based on how much tax each industry contributes to the treasury). He admitted that they haven’t worked out the details yet, but in the meantime they’ll continue to be mad as hell, chasing the PM over fences and into helicopters when the opportunity presents itself.
View all comments by generous sponsor
gs - all the while, without a so called plan, the PAD will run what used to be one of the SE Asia’s growth spots into the ground thinking they are doing it for the people. The biggest crock of shit ever. Amazing.
View all comments by sideshowBOB
On the subject of this week’s escalating madness, I was impressed with tThe Nation’s commentary this morning. (It really is a shame they have no money, as the paper is so often much better written than the Post.)
Continued here…
View all comments by Pattaya Ghost
BBB, now you’re being both pedantic and fatuous, and neither with good reason.
First, I never said it was policy, I said that these were ‘highlights’ of what the PAD ‘recommends’.
I note that you continue to split hairs over the use of PAD generally and Sondhi specifically. I believe that, at times, this may be necessary, but this certainly isn’t one of those times.
I don’t believe that the numbers were “plucked from thin air as an example”, but let’s grant for the moment that they were. That was a couple of months ago. Subsequently Sondhi used them as a benchmark, saying that ‘perhaps’ those numbers could be negotiated to 50/50 but no further.
Also, the 70/30 ratio has been a talking point of New Politics for 8 or 10 weeks, raising it well above a ‘thin air’ number. It’s been discussed widely in the press, on TV, at PAD rallys and the like.
And, very significantly, two or three weeks ago the PAD organized a conference or symposium to discuss the form of New Politics. This was intended to be a significant step in building the structure to go with the buzzword. The 70/30 recommendation emerged unscathed from that event.
This is hardly the same thing. Most democracies operate a bi-cameral system in which the lower house offers direct proportional representation and the upper house offers a different, less direct representation. In the US for example, each state (regardless of population) has 2 senators.
Sondhi’s proposal is for the 70/30 split to apply to the lower house.
Leaving aside the issue of vote-buying for a moment, I know that you understand the political system here well enough to know that under the results of the latest election, ANY government formed would necessarily be a coalition of several political parties.
At 36% (taking your number) the PPP had the largest percentage of elected MPs. It seems to me that you are implying that the percentage somehow takes away from their legitimacy.
If so, I would point to Australia where the Liberal-National coalition government held office for three terms until recently being defeated by Kevin Rudd & Co. The Liberals (the larger of the two coalition partners) never received more than 50% of the popular vote, yet ruled with a legitimate mandate.
If I thought your statements were accurate, I’d probably agree with you here.
One of my biggest problems with the PAD is that they have a history of always upping the ante. In other words, when they achieve what they set out to do, they set a new goal. If you are an athlete or a business person this might be laudable, but when you are a protest group that is one side in an action that is tearing a country apart, then it is stupid.
The idea of the government being able to amend the constitution for indemnification disappeared weeks ago. The PAD won that round. If all they were doing was a ‘holding action’ to keep the bastards honest in the meantime I might well understand. That’s what protest movements are about.
But the action to surround the Parliament yesterday was an attempt to increase the problems. Like closing the airports and port facilities recently, it’s an action aimed at polarizing the debate and the population — NOT to win an argument — but to force the downfall of a government in order to replace it with one more to the liking of the PAD (or it’s leaders, if you like).
Finally, to the issue of vote-buying. There are legal processes in place to deal with it. In any other country I’ve lived in, people would be pleased to see the system being used to punish the cheaters.
I think people here are too.
I don’t disagree with the idea of civil protest. I don’t think people should stand by and watch bad shit go down without taking action.
The PAD ties to put on the appearance of a peaceful civil protest group, and this ‘feels’ good because many of their aims (like getting rid of corruption, or preventing the government from acting improperly) sound so good.
But it’s clear from their actions over time that these are not their real aims, and the PAD has even stopped pretending that they are. They now talk openly about overthrowing — not the government of the day — but the entire system.
The Prime Minister has been trying to move towards a new constitutional drafting group to give us a new governmental system to replace the current one. He is attempting to involve the public and build coalitions towards that end.
That terrifies the PAD because if people are (again) allowed to participate directly in the process of re-structuring the Thai governmental system (for the 20th time in 80 years) then the PAD can’t dictate it’s form.
I constantly get the sense from your responses to my comments about the PAD that you infer that because I am opposed to the PAD that I am somehow pro-corruption, in favor of vote buying, and all about closing my eyes to problems.
If that’s not your intent, I understand, but that’s how I read your frequent and rapid responses to the comments I write about PAD.
I am in favor of the rule of law. I am in favor of solving problems. I think that there is a certain comfort in stability in government that is good for any country, and which Thailand hasn’t enjoyed for any extended period of time in the past century or so.
My view is that the PAD has aims which are evil, and uses means which are incendiary. I think they talk about some laudable ideas along the way to make them sound reasonable and pro-Thailand, but that they (the leadership of the PAD) are entirely the opposite.
Just as you can have sympathy for the PADs concerns, yet not agree with their actions, I believe I can be anti-PAD without being pro-corruption or anti-Thailand.
In my considered opinion, the PAD (leaders) are very bad guys. They should be arrested under the existing warrants issued by Thai courts, tried and sentenced.
If political parties should be disbanded for vote buying by their leaders, then the PAD should be broken up for all the crimes it’s leaders have been charged with, including treason. In my view, it’s exactly what they are guilty of.
The four charges are Article 113 of the Criminal Code for treason, Article 114 for conspiracy for incite treason, Article 215 for conspiring with more than 10 people to cause disturbances or physical harms, Article 216 for resisting to disperse when ordered by law enforcement authorities.
View all comments by Werewolf
I love boobies.
View all comments by Bangkok Bad Boy
Are there any alcohol bans in the second half of November this year? Would be nice to know… any info?
View all comments by Phoenix
I think BBB did very well with his comment to this thread, don’t you? He didn’t fall over or anything and the words form a coherent phrase. Let’s give the boy a round of slow, patronising applause. He’ll be flattered.
View all comments by Pants Elk
Great i don’t need to read fazed.net anymore…
View all comments by RRR
“- is the world finally getting that China is messed up and needs some way to reel it in a bit? My guess is they kill their own people all the time over common safety issues. Food is just one of them. No one cares though. Now other countries are seeing their people die. Are the numbers big enough yet to create a stir? I am not so sure.”
This coming from a yank?
I think the world is now getting how messed up the US is and how they kill their own people (Iraq + Afghanistan).
You ignorant muppet.
View all comments by dave
dave the head muppet -
did I say america is not messed up?
pull your head out
I was not making a comparison nor was I defending my country. Why is it every time I make a comment about some country a non-american has to label me and thus say I can’t comment about another spot. I don’t think so bud.
well. idiot. it is my blog.
china is messed up.
frankly so is America
what the hell is a yank BTW?
View all comments by sideshowBOB
Yank = Yankee = American … “Yankee Go Home!”… “Yankee Doodle Dandy” … “New York Yankees”
View all comments by Rene Descartes
Listen you mug.
What the fuck do you know bout china you haven’t got from fox news.
YOU pull your head out son.
Dave
View all comments by dave
dave
do u always say bad words when u get frustrated?
I don’t watch TV punk.
I worked in HK and China for 5 years. I opened a large Engineering center there for BEA Systems - recently bought by Oracle. I think I know China enough to say what I want to say about it.
Deal.
peace buddy.
View all comments by sideshowBOB
I for one get all my news from the most reliable news source in America - the Colbert report (via Youtube).
View all comments by bkk22