Blowjobs, 3somes, barfines, uni girls and so on. This post will contain none of that. It will be about politics, the economy and the stuff I have been hearing. Deal. Before anyone tells me that I am not qualified to write about this I will remind them that Thailand is a banana republic where people like Samak get legally voted in as a Prime Minister. Given that I think just about anyone is qualified to discuss the political and economic situation in Thailand. Despite what people may think one meets a lot of heavy hitters in the bar who tend to talk over a few beers now and then.
Globally the world is facing some serious headwinds right now. Botched policies meant to help lessen our dependence on oil are helping to drive food costs up. Oil is going through the roof and right along with it some of the raw materials associated with it. Steel keeps climbing. Inflation is a rocket ship right now. In Thailand alone in May it is up 7.6% year over year - this is up further from April where it was 6.2% year over year. No business can easily absorb those numbers without raising prices to some extent. With oil up the airlines are reeling and there will be less flights to Thailand which means higher fares. Which means less people coming. Simple as that.
So let’s say that Thailand is experiencing some serious economic headwinds. This would be all well and good but remember, given this is Thailand one can expect them to make local decisions that will actually exasperate the situation rather than taking steps to goose the economy. So Thailand is sucking serious wind right now and thinks look to be getting worse.
Some of you will jump in and state that the TAT professes that the numbers for inbounds keep going up. Well - Pattaya Ghost put up a fine example of the so called math.
Of course, that’s just plain cynical and evil-minded. It may be, in fact, that Raimon didn’t make up the numbers but got them from TAT’s local Pattaya office, which follows what all the regioal TAT offices do — get their visitor numbers from hotels, not Immigration. That means if a Russian family of 4 visits 3 different hotels, they’re counted as 12 Russian visitors, not 4. It appears only the main TAT office counts vistor numbers provided by the Immigration Bureau. Again, yet another reason Thailand will never be a world power.
So let’s face it. You can’t trust the TAT and with flights, even whole airplanes, being canceled how could the inbound numbers go up - even stay the same? They won’t. They will decline.
I love blogs - you can always discover new things and the Ghost has sent me over to this site:
http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/
With a tagline like this - you have to expect some interesting content.
Coup, Economic slowdown, Terror In the South… The situation is worsening in Thailand. Bumpy road like often before.
But this time, it’s different.
The key to understand the present turmoil is the inevitable…
Will let you check the site for the rest of the tagline but I can’t print it here.
My favorite article over there is this one, I get so tired of people using the condo market as a way of telling themselves that Thailand just keeps growing and that economic success is a sure thing. Well - building development here is funny and it is not about the market or should I say the market forces here are messed up. While else would landlords kick out paying tenants to have empty buildings? On top of that it is well known that developers pad the demand in their projects by reserving condos in their friend’s projects to create demand.
With 15,000 unsold units from last year and 25,000 units from this year, the market will have an additional 40,000 units to clear in 2009.
That is a shitload of condos. I think I will wait for next year to buy one.
So what was the impetus for this post? I was drinking the other day with the General Manger of a large Sukhumvit hotel. GM’s of the big hotels know what is going on. They speak with the Bkk Governor often, regularly deal with the police and have a ton of employees. This particular GM has been in Thailand for over 20 years. I tend to think he knows his shit. If you don’t then stop reading.
I Will just throw out some bits here:
- 2007 was bad. 2008 looks worse.
- There are way too many hotels and condos due to hit the market.
- They have cut overtime in the hotels. Translate that to the working poor here are losing money at the same time that costs are going up. Hence - “normal” girls looking for some side work. He knows for sure some of his staff are doing that now.
- He knows the Gulliver’s team. They are down 30% year over year. They were down in 2007.
- The smoking law is a joke and killing businesses that are forced to enforce it - like hotel bars - when a bunch of other places are getting away with it. Like I have always said. If enforced equally then no problem but when is ANYTHING in Thailand enforced equally?
- They are actively speaking with the local Bkk government to stop the smoking law, deal with the botched closing times and the threats to the promotion of alcohol.
- A lot of the big GMs talk with each other and meet to discuss the issues. They say it is a foregone conclusion that another coup will happen and they are discussing how to deal with it.
So when bar owners, hotels, and restaurants are pushed - most will tell you things are grim. I think they are telling you the truth. The sad part is it could all be made better. Kill the smoking shit. Expand hours. Kill most of the non drinking days - it is hurting tourism. Kill after hours or let the normal market go later. Equality is the key.
On a closing note. Nana is looking more and more doomed. Check this:
A land sale on Sukhumvit Soi 6 has set a record at one million baht per square wah, according to the property agency CB Richard Ellis Thailand (CBRE).
The price of the three-rai site in front of Jaisamarn Full Gospel Church beat the earlier record of 950,000 baht per square wah offered by Central Retail Corp for a nine-rai plot on Phloen Chit Road owned by the British Embassy in mid-2006.
Pretty simple folks. The land under the plaza is much more valuable than the under the table rents paid by a bunch of bars. On top of that - the big hotels in the area want it gone and they are influencing the big Thais to push it they way they want it to go. Which is gone. Keep in mind - the same “group” that is selling out the Night Bazaar would easily sell out the plaza. So over time I just think the place will have a hard time providing the same revenue stream that a large condo, office building or mixed use development would provide. Maybe I am way off here but time will tell.
So next time you are out order an extra beer or two. 
There’s only one thing that needs to be said with respect to all of the above but, as you say concerning the blog you cited above, you ‘can’t print it here.’
All by itself, that one overbearing fact seems to me to summarize this crummy little country pretty well. Thais lead the world in passivity and self-delusion, and they’ve got a lot of pretty serious competition in both those categories.
Live by the myth, die by the myth. RIP. Not my problem.
View all comments by Old Asia Hand
Don’t hear anyting “political” in your rant. What I do hear
sounds to me like some remorse about opening Mango II either from lack of business right now or because when NEP disappears and your Soi Mango location becomes even more remote and out of the way.
I sincerly hope that this is not the case
View all comments by midland
oah - yes. that will be a big event.
m - Well. I try to be political without putting myself out there on the blog closure list. Maybe u missed that. Since I am blaming many of the issues on the government, the police and so on. My guess is u missed the crux of the post, the links and so on. This has nothing to do with the mango, regret or anything. The mango has been planned to be opening as soon as we got a nice space. Our 9 year lease looks pretty good in the face of the nutty real estate prices. Soi 4 will do fine without NEP - hence why the hotels now feel confident in pushing for the demise of NEP. Why is it people always try to turn things into something they are not?
View all comments by smitty
I agree with you, Smitty.
If Nana Plaza is gone, you may never be affected for sure. In fact I do believe TBM will do very well in a few weeks/months time.
It is just a matter of being patient, like you should be when you live here.
View all comments by messi
This is a really crass question - but - what implications do all of have for “Blowjobs, 3somes, barfines, uni girls and so on” ??.
View all comments by andyxyzb
I mean how were these all important commodities affected in 2006??
View all comments by andyxyzb
midland: Seems your comment got through our “delete stupid asinine comments” filter. Apologies folks. Dude, are you really that stupid or are you just trying to be an ass? We’ve been open for a week. Do you think we have remorse after a week and it’s causing us to write remorse posts? Wake up dude.
Even if NEP goes away it won’t be for 4 years, that’s when the 30 year lease is up, and if it indeed does go away, Soi 4 is growing and will continue to grow despite NEP’s existence. There’s another 30-story hotel going up next to the Omni. The area may in fact do better without NEP here.
Okay, I’ve wasted enough time on your idiotic reply. Education is a wonderful thing. You should try it sometime.
View all comments by pmmp
@OAH - I pity your viewpoint. If it is such a “crummy little country” why live here? Sure there’s loads wrong with it but there’s loads right with it too, and which Country would you prefer to be living in USA, UK, PI, Italy or here?
@smitty - for sure the big event will cause EVERYONE to stop smiling for sometime, BUT the people commenting on this should also appreciate that given it is inevitable one would imagine that plans have been made. It would be foolish to underestimate the experience that longevity in a role provides.
Whilst the property market is in for a bumpy ride, and tourism is not in great shape the rest of the economy is actually doing OK. In the year that wasn’t 2007, doing nothing might actually have been a good thing.
I doubt that a coup is likely - it is always possible - this is Thailand, however the alternatives to military intervention (and also the consequences of such intervention) are very different to when Thaksin was ousted.
For starters a coup would be very bad for Thaksin, and so he is trying to defuse what it admittedley a hot situation, but more importantly the premise for a coup doesn’t exist. The current mob have not been in power long enough to reap their reward and hence the reason for a coup is not there.
The military too would not benefit from a coup and know that if they staged one the previous element of surprise has gone - simply put, this time around there would probably be bloodshed and that is in nobody’s interest.
The most likely scenario (imoho):
The “big” boys will get together and work out who is acceptable enough to replace Samak and most of the cabinet. Samak will go, much like Chavalit did, and hopefully without the same impact on economy. I reckon this will happen before end of July but certainly before end of August.
And by that time the rain will be slowing down the weather will be hot and the Italians and French will be headed to Phuket and Samui…
Remember the one benefit of living in a “banana constitutional democracy” is that the climate is good enough to grow banana’s.
@ Midland - I hardly ever go into NEP these days, and haven’t for about 5 - 6 years, I do go into a couple of the bars around there, one being BM
View all comments by psi100th
“Keep in mind - the same “group” that is selling out the Night Bazaar would easily sell out the plaza.”
not sure what u mean here? i didn’t realize the night bazaar and nep land were owned by the same people.
View all comments by bkkunderground
I think what I mean is but I can’t say is - underneath the lawyers, holding companies and sub-leases.
It is the same “company”.
U can add that company to the list of ye who shall not be named on this blog.
View all comments by smitty
That other site is interesting. Did anyone else think it was strange that all their gravatars are matching?
View all comments by Young Royal
Nobody listens to me “I might as well be a Leonard Cohen record”.
View all comments by andyxyzb
andy - did not know what u meant by your early comment
I only have visibility to things like plastics and some manufacturing and everyone I know in that space is looking at costs they have never seen before.
u have a different take on that?
View all comments by smitty
sure the country is facing some economic problems but not sure if letting folks smoke and drink all night is the cure?
View all comments by MSB
“Remember the one benefit of living in a “banana constitutional democracy” is that the climate is good enough to grow banana’s.” Nice quote, PSI
I wish Thailand all the best from a general perspective. But from a sex-tourist’s point of view I don’t: My first vacation in June 2005 on Phuket was the best: Cheap food, drinks and hotels; quiet beaches; 500 Baht for one hour Jetski and cheap girls (I mean only their prize) in abundance. Paid about 5000 THB cash for my two-week female companion. Impossible today. Give me political Tsunamis and dropping tourist numbers all year round and my wallet will be happy
Ok, I was a little polemic, sorry, hehe. Hope Tunnel and the others go late again when I come back later this year, banana republics really suck sometimes.
View all comments by Phoenix
@ andy - I assume you mean… will the cost of a ‘good time’ be affected by the slowing of the economy? Smitty and Pmmp can probably give you a better answer to that, however I have been around long enough to know that in times of falling sales Farang business ‘incentivise’ to generate business but Thais just put their prices up higher and higher to make up the deficit.
Keep playing Leonard Cohen - then no matter what happens elsewhere it will all seem positive.
View all comments by doctorbond
Come on guys, every country has it’s problems..
By the way, I came over to check the bar out during mid week… not a bad little set up you have there
View all comments by Chris
Good post.
I spent some time thinking about those two articles too, the one about the weak condo market and the other about the record soi 6 land sale.
Kinda’ incongruent, huh?
Ying and yang, I guess.
On the other hand, it is low season which is GReaT ! (sorry, i don’t own a business dependent on the tourist trade).
Couple observations. There are more girls lining Sukhumvit between soi 5 and soi 3 then I’ve seen in a long time(even some Uzbeks ! - what kinda’ visa are they on?).
Just this week I walked in the Nana hotel restaurant door (next to the Golden Bar) to use the “customer only” restroom (as I often do) and noted there one not ONE paying customer in the dining room, this at 10 pm.
Personally, as I’ve stated before, I believe this is how the world ends. $140 oil, a US housing market that’s cratering and $12 billion a month going to Iraq.
Not to be negative.
I am SO GLAD I moved here three+ years ago when I had pah were and a little dough.
Come what may, like Bogey and Bergman in “Casablanca”, I’ll always have Bangkok.
Meanwhile, how ’bout those Celtics !
View all comments by jack dawson
Excuuuuuuse me, but I have to put in a word of defence for Leonard Cohen before we get back to berating/solving the Kingdom’s economic woes. He’s the dog’s bollocks. Not only has he never made a bad record, he gives excellent quotes. When asked if he has any regrets about his critical coverage, he said “Yeah. How come they never mention the dancing?” And he said he was “Always touched by the modesty of my record company’s interest in me.” I personally offer to bareknuckle fight anyone who thinks he’s depressing, in the ruins of the NEP. That’ll show them what depressing really is.
The only reason the NEP is still there is that somebody very high up the social ladder (probably not Young Penfold) is getting some very nice kickbacks from the “organisation” that’s getting kickbacks from the landlords, as part of an overall sexpat revenue stream. When this somebody gets a better deal from its development, it’ll be developed.
View all comments by Pants Elk
I’m battered and bloodied from a couple of days of fighting and I’m in a concillatory mood….
so in a complete volte-face I say …. “Go Leonard !!!”
View all comments by doctorbond
PS Let’s do a pool on when the 30-stories-next-to-the-Omni developers will run out of money.
I want the August box.
View all comments by jack dawson
Roll on $200 barrel of oil
View all comments by Day Walker
YP is legendary man! Whatever he’s been doin’ over in LOS, he gets a mention in the form of some sorta derogatory (jestful ones!) comment in every coversation! Should I ask what this poofy manbag is all about then?
View all comments by Rootrat
When the NANA Hotel runs at under 80% occupancy, there are serious problems with tourism.
Coups, Terrorists, Tsunamis, Bird Flu, Sars, HIV, Scammers&Ripoffs, Overcharging&Underperforming, Lying, Poor Service, Early Closing, Piss Tests, Random Police Searches, Censorship, Littering Cops, Corrupt Tourist Police, Murders, Rapes, Motorcycles on Pathways, Inflation, Weak Dollar, Pollution, Crass Development, Corruption, Airport Scammers, Touts, Tuk Tuks, Taxi’s in Tourist Areas, Mafia, Baht Busses, The “Temple is Closed” gangs…….
View all comments by Keith
smitty: wow! that’s kind of shocking news for me if what you say is true. how do the indians tie into this complicated social knot? i always understood the tranche of land around nana sois was owned by the nana family before they sold it off to developers. most of the land owned by the company you’re mentioning is not sold but leased out on a long-term basis, something which doesn’t seem to be the case around nana. am i misunderstanding something? does the indian crew (mentioned in older posts when u opted out of the plaza) that “manages” nep not own the land it stands on? and does the landmark hotel have relationship with your mysterious company. the block of land on soi 6 you mentioned has been in limbo for almost 20 years. it used to be an old house and was razed to the ground but the family conflicts prevented it from being sold and developed. I guess someone gave in or died. i don’t see nep being razed and put to much use without the block of shophouses on sukhumvit going as well.
View all comments by bkkunderground
Sorry. To clarify things. I was referring to the impending coup if that is what it is. Coups to me [being naive obviously] suggest curfews. Curfews mean no one on the streets after dark except cops. Hence no P4P scene of any kind. Was this what happened in the 2006 coup?? You guys are the “experts” I assume. I plan to make my bi annual trip to BKK in August as usual [so I'm a tourist/newbie whatever] but some advice or expert opinion would be valued. This after all is what we look to this site to provide - the other newbie/tourist suckers that is.
And the reference to Leonard Cohen is a quote from a UK TV show called the ‘young ones’ : “No one listens to me I might as well be a Leonard Cohen record”.
View all comments by andyxyzb
@andyxyzb: No curfews last time, at least not that I was aware of. Some bars apparently closed early on the night of the coup, but I was happily boozing at a Thai bar until the early hours.
Went out to Cowboy the following night and had a 3some with two chicks from Sheba’s.
Nightlife wasn’t affected at all.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that next time (if/when) things won’t be completely different…
View all comments by Bangkok Bad Boy
Rootrat, better don’t ask about Penfold. I needed a psychiatrist after knowing only some small details about him and still must take Prozac till today just to get along somehow… I mean… whenever I have a threesome with him and his favorite ladyboy.
Andy, there only was no bloodshed, curfues, etc. because no one resisted (which I personally think is the biggest shame for the Thai people in this whole matter). But, there were tanks on the streets, soldiers,… maybe a hint for a coup? Political parties were dissolved, politicians banned from office, martial law was proclaimed nation-wide, the prime minister ousted, the constitution nullified, the parliament resolved,… mh, eh, yes, not a coup, rather a “re-structuring” I guess
If you want any opinions for your next trip to LOS, go ahead and simply ask questions if you like.
View all comments by Phoenix
My bird lives in a coup
View all comments by Wayne Loony
2 door or 4 door??
View all comments by andyxyzb
My feeling here is not that Thailand is a bad place or that it doesn’t have huge potential. It just annoys me that in all likely hood a government made up from the staff of Star of Light would act more in the interest of the country and its people then the monkeys and orangutan (Samak he’s a serious monkey) that are currently in power
I once heard a story about the Lumpini police force. In order to become the head honcho of Lumpini or any other police force you have to pay your predecessor a serious sum of cash (20 million borrowed) to get the promotion. You then have two years to recoup the cashish and hopefully double your bet. If that’s the police force, Parliament must be the second stock exchange of Thailand. This one has a lot more power however.
View all comments by FalangRakThai
In no way wanting to trivialise matters, but my first trip to LOS was scheduled just after the first (well, the first one lately anyway)coup, so, as a tourist, the current crap won’t put me off in anway. Long as I can still get piss and puss when I get there.
View all comments by Rootrat
All these “bars closed” days are a bit of a worry though, I must say
View all comments by Rootrat
RR: Yes, if I should ever hit such a “bars closed day” on one of my visits, I would be pissed-off as hell and maybe really, finally and seriously become a Pinay-punter ever after.
Ok, my third comment at this post, thats it, over and out.
View all comments by Phoenix
andyxyzb: As …BBB… pointed out the sex biz continued on. You can read http://www.2thebigmango.com/the-weekly/2006/09/20/mango-weekly-coup-edition-17-september-2006/
for more information on what we did that night with the most important part being “With all this going on the only logical action was to get drunk”
View all comments by pmmp
If you think Thailand is in a state, come to Merry Old England! Thailand is a developing country, England is a developed country? Both seem very similar to me.
In fact go anywhere in the world & all the news is doom & f**kin gloom.
We are just going through a restructuring of the New world order.
“With all this going on the only logical action is to get drunk”
View all comments by AUK
Death to NEP ? Overthrowing the government - again ? Rising costs of everything (including the ladies) ? Falling tourists numbers (reality - not TAT numbers) ?
And to think I was worried that my girlfriend (American) wants to go to Thailand with me in the spring…. I’m going to tell her that Thailand has gone belly-up and no longer exists. That way I can avoid the truth and tell her that going there with her would be torture of the worst kind. Imagine bringing a dog to a meat shop…you’d have to watch him every second. And the poor pooch would be dying to just sample a few morsals…that my friends is torture.
As far as inflation - those numbers don’t include the price of energy or food - so in fact the cost of living has increased much more than the 6-7% listed by the government.
One more point - even though Thailand is going through some hard times, so is the US (as pointed out by one of the other posts) - record gas prices, housing foreclosures, banks going under, costly war in Iraq… Even the world’s only Superpower is in dire times.
But it will all come out fine in the end.
View all comments by Calvin
Maybe a G8 summit at the New Mango?
@Calvin - take your girl over, & she could stay in the apartment above the Mango, while you shoot pool etc downstairs.
View all comments by AUK
I really don’tcare if I’m I’m drinking out of a Thai revolutionaries’ armpit (although an icy cold BM beer would be better.) Could always be worse. You could be an Australian. Stuck in Australia. Think about it.
View all comments by Rootrat
Could always be worse.You could be French. Stuck in France. Think about that!
View all comments by AUK
…… or you could be lesbian stuck on Lesbos
View all comments by doctorbond
DB - That has been a great story this week in the papers.
View all comments by AUK
I haven’t looked at a single number but just giving the BKK real estate market the ‘eyeball test’ it looked pretty overheated. How many people are going to be buying USD 1 million condos in the next year? Still, that just makes BKK a lot like Miami–hot, humid, full of unsold condos. I shed no tears for highly leveraged real estate speculators.
The scary thing about the commodities is that it’s _everything_ out there. Metals, food staples, energy. Only timber is fairly cheap right now. And the food stuff is scary, people might complain about expensive gasoline but they don’t generally go on riot and mayhem benders because of it. But hungry people will.
View all comments by tosh
I don’t know what they are complaining about - I’ve had to grow up knowing I was a lesbian trapped in a man’s body
View all comments by doctorbond
AUK: “@Calvin - take your girl over, & she could stay in the apartment above the Mango, while you shoot pool etc downstairs”
The only American to sleep in my bed (that I know of) is pmmp.
- However, if Calvins ‘Broad’ is a fit girl, then I’d consider letting her stay in my crib. Might have to charge a small fee though. I have bills to pay.
View all comments by Day Walker
@DW - So your ‘Crib’ is now fully loaded with the obligatory Jacuzzi & 42″ plasma? Is it still being cleaned by the girls? What are the charges for the Palace of Pleasure?
View all comments by AUK
After reading your last couple of posts I thought it only fair to hear from another of the silent majority ,so here goes.I have been doing business in Thailand for a number of years and I cant remember when Thailand hasnt been economically doomed and the country is run I,m convinced by graduates of the same uni as NEP Gogo bar owners ,when times are tough they increase taxes, tariffs and foreign trade restrictions the same way a bar manager will pad your bill if hes having a quiet month.
Anyway as they say every cloud has a silver lining stuffed economy means a better exchange rate which means that tourists looking for cheap destinations will go where they get best value for money even if the airfare is a couple of hundred more .
So for me barfines are down 10% .
As an aside I drove past the Big mango and saw the sign last weekend .I promise to visit next month,I have a condo in soi 6 so always looking for a good local.In other news I caught them padding my bill at Country road and was offered some enticing compensation I guess they needed the money as I hear they are opening a Country road 2 in Suk Soi 5.
View all comments by Ron
Crib is not finished…..
Having trouble finding jacuzzi. 42″ plasmas are a little small.
- I as hoping for 3 50″ LCD’s.
Anyone know where I can get a good deal on the above mentioned items, please let my secretary (pmmp) know.
Partying in the crib will be availaible to all those who spend a shit load of cash in the Mango.
Can’t say fairer than that!
View all comments by Day Walker
luckily my girl is fit and trim - unfortunately she is also pretty intelligent. I know she won’t let me out of her sight for more than a second. So while I do appreciate the offer to have her stay with Day Walker, I’m sure she’d make me stay there too. That’s not the threesome I have in mind.
View all comments by Calvin
- You could always just amuse yourself with the facilities..?
View all comments by Day Walker
DW - What do you classify as a shitload of cash? Just thinking that I could spend the cash I normally spend per night on a room, & crash at yours everynight. Do I get extras?
View all comments by AUK
calvin- rufies are pretty cheap around bangkok. slip her a micky after having seafood and blame it on bad shrimp. then when she’s resting, make off like you gotta get some medicine and go have a session at tulips. but you gotta make sure to hit up the pharmacy on the way back to cover your tracks.
View all comments by UnCochinoWetback
Well, I’m not into drugging my girlfriends. However, I’m thinking she may get ill eating the food ( I’ll make sure she eats some fish ). Then she’ll be holed up in DayWalker’s pad and I can do what you suggested - make my way down to the pharmacy and get her some medicine. Hey, if I happen to walk into one of the bars along the way for a beer, who could blame me ? It’s hot outside. And if a young pretty lady comes over to talk to me, who am I to be rude and ignore her ? And if she wants to give my leg a nice rub, who would turn down a free massage ? And if she wants to get all cuddly, who would blame her - I am cuddly. And if she wants to take a shower together, well that makes sense - I am sweaty from the walk. And if we lay down on the bed, well, I am tired from staying up all night taking care of my poor girlfriend. And if we end up shagging, well, that’s just animal instinct taking over - and we all know you can’t fight nature…..
View all comments by Calvin
“Hey, if I happen to walk into one of the bars along the way ”
- that’ll be the BM bar then!
AUK: The Penthouse party room was 10k per night, so use that as a guage. However, the Penhouse didn’t sport a pool table and PS3.
I’m also working on a deal with the kitchen staff (lovely lady) to provide food as and when I need it.
- Obviously the punters in the bar will take priority when ordering food. Don’t want to upset the ‘Mango Team’.
However.. I am wondering if I am allowed to wonder down the stairs in my underpants and cook my breakfast in the kitchens?
I’m sure YP would want to get in on some of that action?
UCW: Rufies are shite.. Last time I used them with a girl, I couldn’t remember a thing and had a splitting headache after.
View all comments by Day Walker
DW - sorry to burst your bubble, but id rather have a tongue sandwich with the bitches from 2girls1cup.com then witness you scratching your tummy/prick/anus/all of the above, in ur skiddy y-fronts, stinking of beer and semen (not your own) in a half pissed/half comatosed state
Sorry….. but maybe its my wholesome christian upbringing
View all comments by Young Penfold
YP: I was referring to you cooking some food, as you are looking for work, I thought you might be saving your pennies?
= But, as always, your perverse one-track mind runs off and 100mph.
But I forgive you, as does Allah.
View all comments by Day Walker
I thought of commenting last time when there was a post about an assistant finance minister who knows nothing about finance. What ever. Look who America choose as there President. For every stupid decision the Thais make that people joke about on here, there are just as many being made in UK/USA, rest of the world. I brought up Peak Oil before which Smitty claims is a myth. The truth is nobody really knows whens it’s going to happen. But we will reach that point one day. The bigger picture is Peak Non-OPEC oil which is starting to hit us now. The energy wars have already started. Maybe it’s time to start betting on Crude prices? Less people will be traveling in the future and it will probably get less regulated. As long as I can continue to fly to Thailand as and when I want I will be happy. And I should be able to for a couple of decades yet.
The world population is currently 6 billion and expected to rise to 9 billion by the end of the century. Easy to understand what happened to Easter Island now isn’t it.
Yeah a lot of the problem is not supply and demand (but it will be someday) and brings me to my point. The Governments don’t have a lot of control anymore, world economies are being affected by financiers betting on everything.
Here’s a good summary of how fucked up the UK’s going to get.
http://www.2thebigmango.com/main/2008/06/13/bkk-in-a-funk/#comments
View all comments by Young Royal
That link should be this.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/article.html?in_article_id=442516&in_page_id=3
View all comments by Young Royal
I remember reading in Stick over the years, quite often, how ‘based on bar operators opinions, the current season was the worst on record’. In fact very rarely do I remember reading there about a ‘good’ tourist season!
However, this is not to deny Thailand’s current woes. Yet, when I was in Indonesia recently, a friend of mine who works for a major foreign hotel chain was one day totally shook up; she told me that her GM had told her that, ‘according to estimates’, Indo was in serious danger of falling in a crisis similar to the one from the late 90’s. She remembers quite vividly the *krisi* from back then and the prospect got her really frightened.
So I am not sure if this is a regional (or global) scare, or something more substantial.
Another good resource on Thai politics etc is http://bangkokpundit.blogspot.com/
View all comments by Julian
Won’t be able to comment on each comment. just too many.
My point was the economic headwinds are facing every country - not thailand but the people who “run” thailand won’t do anything to fix it and appear to be making it worse.
I am not saying drink and smoke all night - what I am saying is the unequal rules and the random closures coupled with closing times that no one can figure out - is damaging tourism. Tourism is vital to thailand - never forget that.
The current government had hoped to juice the economy with the big infrastructure projects but with steel, cement and so on going through the roof - those will have to be cutback.
I am holding an document from the joint chambers to the government that outlines a lot of the issues people who invest in Thailand are concerned with. That in the face of a global malaise the local chaps are not helping. They cite major issues like IT, communications, work permit hell, foreign investment hell, and so on. Very real issues.
So I am not bitching about the bar biz or saying things are down just to say it. I think there are very real signs and things that could and should be addressed to make things better. Instead more time will be spent fighting off Thaksin, wondering if there should be a coup and dealing with the struggles of a so called democracy.
As for NEP - I think it s pretty simple. I think PE nailed it and no matter how much one thinks it should stay or will stay - simple economics will win this one. No one in charge of the place or the surrounding areas is worried if the farangs lose their go-go bars. If they were then they would be more worried about the other broader dumb decisions that affect tourism. So far they don’t seem to.
All the indians in NEP who do the sub-leases do NOT own the place. They buy the master lease and pass it down to tenants. They wish they would buy it and are trying to but rumors are they won’t even be able to get close to the big numbers. Let’s say they did - rents would easily double again. You just cannot charge enough for 3 levels of bars that can equal a 25 or 30 story office tower or condo. Just no way.
maybe things slowing down, the baht falling and Thailand getting a wake up call is just what the tourist dr ordered.
time will tell.
View all comments by smitty
How about a 25 or 30 levels of bars. Oh well never mind.
View all comments by Young Royal
“maybe things slowing down, the baht falling and Thailand getting a wake up call is just what the tourist dr ordered”
Not just Thailand but globally, with the price of oil expected to touch $200 by years end and lets face it our lives, earnings, savings & expenditure are governed by the price of oil a major global recession is on the way, if not in effect now but its going to get bigger, big time.
LOS has always smiled to foreign investment unless the powers of be “smarten up” very soon the monks will be called in to pass the hat along - once again.
Everybody complains business is down, but is it really, tourists, punters are still in droves spending, only those who offer value, services will survive. Wait till the Russains arrive, then you’ll see money, fckin lots of it, you only have to look at Dubai to see the influence russkies have, its buy buy buy, LOS will become the same within 3 years you’ll see russian money buying anything that moves or does’nt until then Thais have a lot of thinking to do to see this action, especially foreign property rights, currency & visas.
“Make LOS User Friendly”
TTFN
View all comments by laocowboy
If anyone here is smart enough to be able to say for sure about things like peak oil and the price of a barrel of crude at the end of the year, you should get your booty to London or NYC and start making some big bets. On Friday at work I predicted that Robin van Persie would score for the Dutch as he subbed on and when he scored in about five minutes everyone busted my balls asking what markets were going to do on Monday. ‘Hey smart guy, can I get a read on IRF.’
Everyone is talking about oil, but are we also seeing the beginning of peak aluminum, peak rice, peak feed hogs, and peak cardboard? Why is it that while natural gas is expensive, on a per-BTU basis it is way cheaper than it should be historically with current oil prices? Every indication is that commodity prices aren’t likely to go down soon, so commodity intensive economies (read Asia ex-Japan) are going to feel the brunt. But to say ‘we’re going to have a worldwide recession/depression’ is like predicting and earthquake. Or Robin van Persie scoring a goal. If you’re right you look smart, but in fact it’s just luck.
Thailand has a rep among US/European investors as being a tough place to put money. I don’t know if this is true or not, because I don’t work on that kind of thing, but people who talk to me about it because they know I love the country say that. The regulatory environment is, um, elastic shall we say. The government does weird things with no particular explanation, changing the pitch for all players in the middle of the game. The courts are hard to deal with if a dispute goes that far and the local cops are often a pain as well. Because of this, it seems to me that most companies rely on Thai run or hardcore expat run businesses for outsourcing and invest less directly than they might in, say, India. Then there are those pesky coups every couple of years. In reality by coup standards they’re usually pretty tame, but say the words coup d’etat to a Western investor and s/he thinks of mobs showing up at their factories and offices with pitchforks and torches.
The punters like me who think that two weeks of Sing Ha, Som Tom, and Orchid is just the way to recharge the batteries will return as long as the money holds up. But if Thailand wants some more ‘real’ investment (mind, I consider my 2200 baht at Orchid to be very real indeed), and I suspect they do, they need to work on transparency and corruption. I think when I was in the LOS last time the corruption index was released and Thailand bested only Burma in SE Asia. Not a good sign when such legendary bastions of good government like Cambodia and Malaysia are seen as less corrupt.
@ Smitty - ‘public works projects.’ I’m fairly confident the greatest innovation in the history of government was the realization that while it’s often fairly difficult to steal directly from the government it’s hard NOT to steal from a huge government project. I’m sure the pharohs were fleeced mercilessly by contractors double charging for no-show slaves and using sub-standard stones. The Romans more or less explicitly used building temples and aqueducts as a way to manage ‘one hand washes the other’ political relationships. When you look a bit into who owns the cement, steel, and construction concessions in Thailand and how the contracts are awarded, well, it makes Haliburton and KBR look downright honest.
Really sad to me, I don’t think I’ve ever visited a country where such genuinely decent citizens have such genuinely indecent government.
View all comments by tosh
tosh: i hate to see it but people always get the government they deserve. if people are willing to sell their votes then they deserve to get a corrupt government and corrupt government officials.
and i’m not sure thai corruption makes halliburton look honest. i think the railroad barons in the us and the rockefeller fortune was about as dirty as what goes on here.
View all comments by bkkunderground
I didn’t say the US wasn’t corrupt, and I understand that money and power will always interact. But two examples. In the US if a company is dumping toxic crap into a lake you live by, and you can prove it, you can sue them and get the damage fixed and get a lot of money. Is that true in the LOS? The second one, and to me this goes more to the heart of things, NYC enacted a smoking ban a while back. One of my favorite locals, one of the few lower east side dive bars left that is a real dive bar, is run by a nutcase I happen to like who smokes two packs of newports by dinner time. He was on the war path and just ignored the law. A few people complained, he threw them out telling them it was ‘his business.’ Eventually, as I expected, someone called the cops, personally I suspect a competing bar. The cops didn’t care, and probably were happy to find out a place that was smoker friendly. After that the same person called the state liquor commission who called bar owner and said something like, ‘We know we’re going to have to make an example of someone on this by yanking their liquor license and fining the beejesus out of them. Right now you’re #1 on the list. Thought you might want to know.’ So, no more smoking. Sure there are still places where one can smoke and drink in NYC, but if someone complains the law will be enforced.
I don’t live in BKK, and don’t know the ins and outs, but when I read that the smoking ban is being enforced differently according to the police district in which the bar/restaurant is located, that shows a level of endemic, pervasive corruption that is far different than the doubtless corruption in the UK or the US. That sounds more like what one sees in Russia, where politicians, cops, crony capitalists, and gangsters work more or less openly together, assuming they aren’t more than one of those to start with.
I think in both cases (Russia and Thailand) foreign investors see that as a problem. They think they can deal with the old school Boss Tweed, Tammany Hall, JP Morgan type of corruption where you pay off politicians to let a deal go through. These days it’s done with more subtlety by hiring the politician’s cousin’s law firm as a consultant on the deal, so it gets done. I think outside investors looking at places like Russia, and I suspect Thailand, worry that even after they’ve paid everyone off and hired the cousin’s law firm and the deal is done that a) someone else is going to show up expecting to get a slice, b) the deal will suddenly be reviewed by another party and found wanting, or c) after the deal is finished someone will come along and just take the result without paying for it.
Could be wrong, of course, but that’s the perception I get talking to people. And someone will always show up, the Russian energy companies have been cornholing anyone stupid enough to try to work with them since Yeltsin, but people still line up to do more deals. Hope springs eternal I guess.
View all comments by tosh
A big event, a big scary event indeed! Time bomb Thailand!
View all comments by mart
Interesting stuff Tosh, I can give a good example of that. The Sakhalin II project which was 55% SHELL, the rest was Mitsui and Mitshuishi. Gazprom had been trying to wrestle shares off the Consortium at the same time as the Russian government kept slowing the project down with environmental issues. End result Gasprom now has 50% plus 1 share.
This link is about how the Shell CEO lied to investors.
http://www.bloggernews.net/116075
View all comments by Young Royal
Quite right, YR, and somehow, don’t you just get a lingering feeling that LNG plant that is the supposed payoff for RD/Shell getting screwed harder than a hot ladyboy in a bathhouse on Sakhalin might have some ‘environmental problems’ of its own down the line? A hunch but I think it just might. But if you’re the Shell CEO what do you do? The oil and gas are under their country, you want a slice of it, in the end you’ll get whatever the gangster/pols/ceos what you to.
Anyway, I think on a much smaller scale that’s what many Westerners are worried about when they talk about ‘contract law’ and ‘corruption.’
View all comments by tosh
tosh - I think you are right on the corruption but I don’t think the corruption is the problem. It is the laws changing all the time, the stupid ass work permit crap and the dumb ideas they dream up that suddenly affect 1000’s of business without anyone studying the impact.
For sure on the corruption it is bad. My friend is Dutch lawyer working in BKK to clean up old oil/gas joint ventures where the non thai partner did not receive all the revenue that was due them. Once my friend got close to the meat and figured out the issues they had a raid on their office to do work permit checks. All good and they leave. That was just a mission to scare them and get some data. When all the foreigners went to renew their work permits they were all denied for various odd reasons. With work permits gone they have to do visa runs but then got in trouble for working here without a permit and were all forced to leave. That is how deep it goes here. Stunning but I don’t think Thailand is alone.
But other countries would not do all the idiot shit to actually make an economy worse than it already is. Rumor is the next round of inflation checks will show double digit growth. They are also buying dollars to save the baht. If they did not intervene the baht would probably already be at 34 to the dollar.
View all comments by smitty
tosh: You make a good point that the deals here always change. But that’s a result of democracy. Back in the military dictator days there weren’t these problems. You knew the person you paid controlled everything and was going to stay in power. Now the web is much more complex to navigate and the alliances are alway shifting. This is why Western countries perpetuate dictatorships when it serves them economically so they can rape and pillage the country. Democracy has opened up the country and made the usual corruption deals more complicated and risky for Western companies. But my feeling is if you’re willing as a businessman/company to play the game and bribe people against your own moral values then you deserve any repercussion that may come.
View all comments by bkkunderground
bkk - I think u are off on the last bit.
many times in Thailand I have found the legal or shall I say normal way of doing something closed. It was closed so that the people could present to u your only other option. Pay off someone to get it done.
In that case it is not a bribe. There is not a 1-800 call someone number to report corruption or crime. If there was I would be scared to death to call it - even from a payphone.
So in this case it is not playing the game. It is my only choice. Morality has nothing to do with this.
Let me give u a very simple example. It used to be in Thailand that for over 3 pool tables u needed a pool license. Well guess what - they seem to not have the paperwork anymore to apply for the license and no one knows what happened to it. Of course they explain this to you at the same time that the tell you the police will charge you so much a table per month. So some bars stop at 3 tables. Pool halls just suck it up and pay.
So if I wanted to open a pool hall, legally with all my moral obligations met - what am I to do? Call Samak and complain? Call the UN? Maybe my embassy could lend a hand here. Shit - my mom?
So I agree with the crux of what you are saying but your last comment is not well thought out at all.
View all comments by smitty
When the NANA Hotel runs at under 80% occupancy, there are serious problems with tourism, says Keith, but I hear that on the 1st of July their rooms rates are going up…….again!
Another factor affecting the Nana is hygiene, in another prominent Bangkok column a writer complained of cockroaches in his room, a complaint which was met with total indifference, and IIRC the author of the column wrote that when eating at the Nana coffee shop he found a cockroach in his SALAD!! his complaint was also treated with a shrug of the shoulders.
View all comments by Somerled
I once saw a huuuuuge fookin rat running down the corridor of the Honey Hotel.
If my memory serves me correct, I saw YP running after it with his pants down.
Don’t know what that was all about?